Day Seventeen

In the UK, as elsewhere, we are grappling with balancing death by coronavirus versus death (economic and physical) by deprivation, we are hearing a renewed call for relaxing the restrictions and allowing the virus to do what it will. Here's the logic.  So long as we ward off the spread of the virus by locking down, we only delay the inevitable, which is that everyone will eventually be exposed.

Wherever restrictions have been relaxed after new cases have dropped off, new cases have rebounded. This includes Wuhan and Hubei province.

So we can prevent the second wave indefinitely by remaining locked down indefinitely, and collapsing the economy indefinitely.

Or we can relax the restrictions, and revive the economy to the degree that we do, and release the virus to infect more people to the degree that we do.

 Indefinite cratering of the economy, and everything that comes with that, cannot be an option. So let us out to die, if that is our fate.

Hydroxychloroquine is Trump's answer. Also the Z-pack.

However, he continues to ask whether the cure is worse than the disease. And if it is true that the cure is doing nothing to reduce the eventual cost of the disease, only delaying it, while the costs of the cure mount, he's right.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The base rate fallacy